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The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook confirms the strength of the Australian economy and that the Budget will return to surplus as part of the Government’s plan to guarantee the essential services which Australians rely on.
The underlying cash balance is forecast to improve from a $14.5 billion deficit at Budget to a $5.2 billion deficit in 2018-19.
The Budget is now expected to reach a surplus of $4.1 billion in 2019‑20.
This will be the first surplus since the final budget of the Howard Government in 2007-08.
Over the next four years, the cumulative estimated surplus will be nearly double the estimate in this year’s Budget, with underlying cash surpluses increasing to $12.5 billion in 2020-21 and $19.0 billion in 2021-22.
The combination of a growing economy with a record number of people in work is helping to increase revenues while decreasing expenditure. This means expected total receipts have been revised up by $8.3 billion in 2018‑19 and $12.4 billion over the four years to 2021‑22.
In accordance with our disciplined budget management, new spending has been offset by reduced spending elsewhere and the payments‑to‑GDP ratio is falling to 24.6 per cent by 2020‑21.
Importantly, the rate of real spending growth under the Coalition is averaging 1.9 per cent, the lowest level of any Government in 50 years.
As a result of the improved budget position, net debt is expected to decline in each year of the forward estimates and medium term, falling from 18.2 per cent of GDP in 2018‑19 to 1.5 per cent in 2028‑29.
These are the welcome dividends of sound budget management and the Government’s plan for a strong economy.
Keeping the economy strong
Australia’s economy continues to perform well. Business conditions have supported the creation of over 300,000 jobs in the past year with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level since 2012. Real GDP is expected to grow by 2¾ per cent in 2018‑19 and 3 per cent in 2019‑20. This growth outlook is forecast to support continuing employment growth, helping to keep the unemployment rate at five per cent which is around a quarter of a percentage point lower than forecast at the Budget. Nominal GDP is forecast to grow by 4¾ per cent in 2018‑19, stronger than expected at Budget.
The Government is delivering on its plan to keep the Australian economy strong by backing small business, ensuring women have access to greater economic opportunities, investing in infrastructure, providing drought relief and delivering a fairer GST system for all states and territories.
The Government has fast-tracked tax relief for around 3.3 million small and medium‑sized businesses with the passage of legislation through Parliament in October. We are also establishing a $2 billion Australian Business Securitisation Fund, providing significant additional funding to smaller banks and non‑bank lenders to on‑lend to small businesses. The Government is encouraging the creation of an Australian Business Growth Fund to provide longer‑term and passive equity funding to small businesses as well.
To ensure Australia’s corporate and financial sector regulators are equipped with the resources and powers they need to effectively detect, deter and punish those who do the wrong thing, the Government is providing additional funding for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions and the Federal Court of Australia.
The Women’s Economic Security Package will invest $119.2 million over four years to support women’s workforce participation, earning potential and economic independence. A number of measures will also support victims of family and domestic violence.
The $75 billion 10-year infrastructure plan will benefit people and business in every state and territory by tackling congestion, improving safety and delivering essential transport links.
The Government is responding to the drought with over $1.8 billion in assistance measures and concessional loans to support drought‑affected farmers and communities. The $3.9 billion Future Drought Fund — which will grow to $5 billion — will provide a sustainable source of funding for future drought resilience, preparedness and recovery projects. The Government is providing more support to farmers to resolve labour shortages in regional and rural areas through changes to a number of visas.
The Government is keeping the economy strong by placing downward pressure on power bills and improving the reliability of Australian energy. Further actions include a default electricity retail offer, the Retailer Reliability Obligation, a program to underwrite new generation, and strong new powers to respond to electricity market misconduct identified by the ACCC, with additional resources for the ACCC and Australian Energy Regulator.
The Government is also delivering a fairer and more sustainable GST distribution system to help the states and territories better manage their budgets. The GST compliance program will be extended and feminine hygiene products will be GST‑free from 1 January 2019.
Delivering the essential services which Australians rely on
A strong economy is the key to delivering better government services.
Over the five years to 2018-19, Commonwealth funding to the states and territories for public hospitals is expected to grow by more than 50 per cent. This includes an additional $1.3 billion over four years from 2018-19 to establish a Community Health and Hospitals Program which will fund projects and services to support patient care while reducing pressure on community and hospital services.
The Government is listing new medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, including $1.4 billion in new and amended listings. To enhance primary care, the Government will introduce new Medicare Benefits Schedule items including to provide best practice care to individuals with severe eating disorders and to improve access to GPs in rural and remote areas and in residential aged care. The Health Care Homes Trial for patients with chronic care conditions will be extended.
The Commonwealth will provide more than $300 billion in recurrent funding for schools to 2029. This includes an additional $3.2 billion over 10 years to support students, parents and teachers of non‑government schools. The Government is also providing $1.2 billion to address specific challenges in the non‑government schools sector, such as supporting schools in drought-affected areas, schools that need help to improve performance and to deliver choice in communities.
Total spending on aged care is expected to reach a record $23.5 billion in 2021‑22. This includes bringing forward the release of 10,000 home care packages to connect more older Australians with high‑level support and providing additional support to Australians in residential aged care in regional, rural and remote areas and those at risk of homelessness. The Government is also establishing a new National Elder Abuse Hotline to provide a point of access to state and territory based services for older people and their families seeking to address elder abuse.
Australia will step up its engagement in the Pacific to promote regional stability. The MYEFO includes a package of initiatives which will build on our strong partnerships in the region. This includes establishing the $2 billion Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific and providing an extra $1 billion in callable capital for Efic, Australia’s export financing agency.
The Government is providing assistance for survivors and victims of child sexual abuse. In response to the Royal Commission’s recommendations, the Government has established the National Office for Child Safety and will expand the Witness Assistance Services of the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.
The benefit of the strong growing economy under the Liberal and National Government is that more and improved services are being funded without exceeding the Government’s tax ‘speed limit’ of 23.9 per cent of GDP. In fact, we are delivering tax relief for hard working Australians and small businesses. This is the dividend of the sound budget position and the Government’s plan for a strong economy.
The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook for the 2018‑19 financial year is available via www.budget.gov.au.

The Government has failed to budget for its Clayton’s Commonwealth Integrity Commission in MYEFO, proving the announcement was just smoke and mirrors, Greens spokesperson for democracy Senator Larissa Waters said.
“The Morrison Government has no intention of actually seeing a CIC through to establishment and ending this rigged system any time soon,” Senator Waters said.
“They claim to have been working on a proposal for 12 months yet have failed to budget for it.
“If the PM was serious he’d have ensured that at least the measly amount mooted for this new body was included in yesterday’s half-yearly budget statement.
“Instead, the deceit of the Australian public continues. There’s no legislation, there’s a Government-appointed panel overseeing ‘consultation’, and at the heart of it, there’s a weak and underfunded proposal for a body that will do nothing to actually help clean up politics.
“The Government needs to show us the money or admit this issue is still well on the ‘fringe’ of its priorities.”

Greens climate change and energy spokesperson Adam Bandt MP today expressed his disappointment that Labor’s National Conference has failed to act on coal.
“It is fundamentally dishonest to move motions about the climate emergency but then have no plan to stop the burning and exporting of coal,” said Mr Bandt.
“Their refusal to phase out coal, along with their Abbott-esque commitment to pro-rata emissions reductions across the economy, shows that Labor is not prepared to tackle the climate emergency.
“Unless Labor comes up with a plan to stop Adani and end coal exports, Bill Shorten will be dogged by striking students and climate protestors right up until election day.
“Meanwhile, as Australia’s emissions continue to rise, Angus Taylor continues to mislead the public about the Paris Agreement.
“Australia will not ‘smash the target without intervention’ because it’s an economy-wide target, not an electricity-specific one, and the government’s own data says we’re on track to miss it.
“There is no electricity sector-specific target in our Paris commitments. We have promised to cut pollution across the whole country, but instead pollution is going up.
“So far, the government’s only plan to meet Paris appears to be using dodgy accounting to cook the books and count dodgy ‘carryover’ credits from Kyoto towards Paris.
“The only thing we are going to ‘smash’ under this government are temperature records.”

Australian Greens Education Spokesperson, Senator Mehreen Faruqi, has condemned the Liberal Government’s punitive $328.5m cuts to University Block Grants.
Senator Faruqi said:
“The Liberal Government has continued their war on universities with the $328.5m cut to Research Block Grants announced in the Mid Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
“These punitive cuts demonstrate the Liberal government’s disrespect for the higher education sector and the vital research work conducted in our universities.
“The cuts are more than double the amount previously announced. The government doesn’t even have the courtesy to consult or even let universities know how much money they are cutting.
“The principle here is simple. We cannot be an innovative country without properly funding universities to undertake world class research.
“The Liberals hostility towards universities is clear. They’ve politically interfered in ARC grant approvals, introduced a tax on unis with their Cost Recovery bill and have now confirmed they are gutting research funding,” she concluded.

Greens employment spokesperson Adam Bandt MP today noted MYEFO joins 8 years of heroic wage growth forecasts that haven’t come true, making this mid-year update more fantasy than reality.
“If history is anything to go by, we’ll see pigs at 35,000 feet before these wage growth forecasts come true,” said Mr Bandt.
“We’re now in our 8th year of broken wage growth promises.
“Neoliberalism does not deliver decent wage rises.
“We need to legislate a floor under the minimum wage, restore cuts to penalty rates and recalibrate the economy so it serves working people.
“Working people are entitled to be sick and tired of this government, but there’s no guarantee that Labor will deliver either. If the market won’t deliver wages growth, the next government needs to implement policies to generate it.”
Below is a graph representing the gap between forecasted increases to wage growth and actual wage growth:

Sources: Budget Strategy and Outlook: Budget paper No. 1; Statement Two: Economic Outlook, Table 1; and MYEFO, December 2018

Greens climate change and energy spokesperson Adam Bandt MP today noted that the release of this year’s ‘Mid-Year Financial and Economic Outlook’, which shows spending on climate change decreasing every year to 2021-2022, reflects the same disdain this government has shown towards real action on climate change at the recent international climate talks in Poland.
“Australia is a climate change denier at home and abroad,” said Mr Bandt.
“While Australia attempts to sabotage international climate negotiations abroad by spruiking fossil fuels, MYEFO shows the government is cutting spending on climate change when it should be lifting it.
“Australia should be leading the way and joining other countries in the urgent push to lift ambition to keep global warming well below 1.5 degrees.
“Instead, we’re trying to undermine real action on climate and attempting to cook the books by using ‘carryover’ from Kyoto to meet our already measly Paris obligations.
“It’s clear we need to turf this rotten government out as soon as possible and hold the next one to account, as Labor is also refusing to rule out using dodgy ‘carryover credits’ from Kyoto.”