The US National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) 2024, which passed the US House and Congress, does not guarantee Australia the sale of nuclear-powered submarines as part of the AUKUS deal.
The Bill instead clarifies that any possible transfer of nuclear submarines from the US to Australia is contingent on Australia operating within US national interests.
The NDAA states that nine months before a submarine can be transferred a future US President, whoever that may be at the time, must ensure Australia would only use them “consistent with United States foreign policy and national security interests.” If this is not guaranteed, then no submarines will be transferred.
The Bill also provides that the President must certify that the provision of U.S. nuclear submarines to Australia will not cause a capability gap for the U.S. Navy.
Given the US currently cannot build enough nuclear submarines to meet its own needs, let alone Australia’s, this is almost certainly a poison pill for the AUKUS deal.
Greens spokesperson for Defence, David Shoebridge, said:
“This Bill is an unmasking moment, because it is now written in black and white, Australia can either have an independent foreign policy or US nuclear submarines, but it cannot have both.”
“This Act does not guarantee Australia nuclear submarines, there are so many get out of jail free cards written into this legislation for the US.
“To meet the demand for US and AUKUS submarines the US needs a five-fold increase in its nuclear submarine building industrial base and there is no credible plan to get it even close to this.
“Ultimately this Bill is a media moment not a structural solution, because it kicks the real problems down the road for future administrations to deal with.
“The immediate danger for Australia is not that we will receive hugely expensive nuclear submarines, but that we will surrender any pretence of an independent foreign policy to Washington,” said Senator Shoebridge.